Development of Accident Prediction Model: A Case study At Bhuj City

Abstract

The problem of accident is very acute in highway transportation due to complex flow patterns of vehicular traffic presence of mixed traffic and pedestrians. Traffic accidents may involve property damages, personal injuries or even causalities. One of the main objectives of traffic engineering is to provide safe traffic movements. Road accident cannot be totally prevented, but by suitable traffic engineering and management measure, the accident rate can be decreased considerably. Therefore to carry out systematic accident studies to investigate the causes of accidents and to take preventive measures in terms of design and control. To develop road accident prediction model each and every parameter related with the accident is considered and a micro level analysis of road accident is performed. For micro level analysis road accident data of last eleven year (2010 to 2019) from different five police station is collected and a detailed analysis is performed on basis like Hour, year, location, type of collision, type of road, physical feature of road, age group, sex etc. On basis of these analysis effect of accident is identified. After analysis road accident prediction models is developed based on different parameter like Number of Vehicle and population ratio and vehicular composition. All the models are validate through F test and Chi Square test.